Rishi Sunak appeared to defy the political odds this week when the tracker poll came back showing the Conservative Party has gone up a point in support to 29 percent.
With Mr Sunak facing four by-elections, the increase in support came despite the week being dominated by the Tory civil war in the wake of the Privileges Committee Partygate report in Parliament which saw Conservative MPs turn on each other.
It also came despite interest rates going up another percent with Tory MPs demanding Chancellor Jeremy Hunt intervenes with the Bank of England, particularly over crippling mortgage rates and a collapse in the housing market.
However, the Tory gain was offset by Labour also going up one percent in support to 45 points, meaning that Sir Keir Starmer has maintained his 16 percent lead.
Meanwhile, the Lib Dems have lost a point going down to 10 percent, Reform UK down one to five percent and the Greens unchanged on five percent.
If this poll were reflected in an actual general election it would give Labour a majority of 188 according to the prediction website Electoral Calculus.
The Conservatives would have their worst-ever result with 157 seats meaning that any MP with a majority of less than 15,000 would be under threat.
Michela Morizzo, chief executive of Techne UK, said: “This has been a very turbulent week for Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives. The dramatic decision of the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 0.5 percent yesterday – to 5 percent above base rate – further hits struggling families with much increased variable rate mortgages – together with many other implications too of course.
“With inflation stubbornly high it might seem surprising that this week’s tracker poll shows the Labour lead at 45 percent – plus 1 point on last week – over Conservatives at 29 percent – also plus 1 point on last week – maintaining a 16 point lead for Labour.
“Of course, our poll was taken exclusively before the Bank of England news this week. Next week’s tracker will be key to understand how the electors will react from the voting intentions point of view.”
The polling though will be a boost to Rishi Sunak who did one of his PM Connect events at an IKEA depot in Kent yesterday where he insisted he could turn his party’s and the country’s fortunes around.
However, he also gave his strongest indication yet that the government would not be able to cut taxes this autumn because of the need to reduce inflation which remained stubbornly high this week on 8.7 percent despite predictions it would come down.
One of the Prime Minister’s five pledges is to halve inflation and he appears to be on course to fail to meet that target.
Mr Sunak also appears to be struggling to meet his promise to end the small boats crossing the English Channel with illegal migrants.
Last weekend 707 arrived with the total number topping 10,000 this year already.
The scale of Mr Sunak’s challenge to overturn the polls though is highlighted in that every age group now has Labour in the lead.
Also of the 2019 Tory voters on two thirds (65 percent) have stuck with the party.
However, the poll shows that a third do not yet know how to vote or are planning not to vote which means that Mr Sunak can still win over a large group of undecideds who have not gone to Labour.
On the anniversary of the EU referendum it is noticeable that the Conservatives get less than half (47 percent) of Leave voters from 2016 with 11 percent now planning to vote for Reform UK.